The FA Cup 5th Round - Saturday 19th February 2005
Prices where given are from those eager chaps at BetandWin, the same lovely people who gave you 3/1 about a Man Utd win at Arsenal. Gotta love 'em.
1. Bolton Wanderers vs Derby County or Fulham
Bolton are starting to regain some form after their disastrous run earlier this season. They seem to be scoring more freely and so long as Diouf doesn't start spitting at people again, they look dangerous coming forward.
Derby vs Fulham isn't going to be pretty and it's hard to call a winner.
Derby are putting together a strong run in the championship and are sitting in the playoff places. It's liable to be a bit scrappy, but Bolton still have the definite edge. I expect the bookies will price this one about right, but if anyone offers 8/11 or more on a home win, it's worth taking
If it's Fulham, expect much of the same, only Fulham with a bit more quality. Would still make Bolton slight favourites, but would want 6/5 before getting involved.
2. WBA or Tottenham vs Nottingham Forest
Let's make this easier to start with and assume Spurs will see of West Brom. Now, Tottenham have just nicked Forest's best two players, Reid will be especially missed by the boys in red. Forest are struggling in the Championship as it is, languishing in the drop zone without a win all season. Spurs look lively under Jol and despite a recent dip in league form they should have far too much for Forest. Take anything over 8/13
3. Everton vs Manchester United 4.4 3.2 1.75
Everton are still digging in their heels in the league and Beattie will add firepower up front, where previously they have been a bit goal-shy. United are on fearsome form right now, and while they won't catch Chelsea, they should finish a clear second. Rooney was made for this game and will most likely score at least once. I can't see Everton staying with United in the cup. Sir Alex always gets his team fired up for this one, and especially with the league out of the way and a very hard tie against AC in the Champions' League, the FA Cup has become a high priority. The 1.75 that BetandWin are already offering looks quite good. I would make Utd no higher than 4/6 for this.
4. Charlton vs Leicester 1.45 3.75 6.5
Just reading the teams involved makes one want to fall asleep. Mid-table Premiership against mid-table Championship. Woohoo. Charlton are worthy favourites, I'd make them about 8/13, which I doubt the bookies will beat. Not one to bet on.
5. Burnley vs Blackburn 3.5 3.2 1.95
A hardy bunch of northerners running round kicking each other makes for another scrappy tie. Blackburn are as erratic as ever and rule 3 of the betting handbook states never to bet on matches involving them, they'll only piss you off. See no reason to break that rule here.
6. Southampton vs Brentford or Hartlepool
A second dream tie in a row for Southampton. I confess to knowing sod all about the other two, except neither stand a chance. However poorly Southampton's season is going, they aren't going out of the cup to Brentford or Hartlepool. Prices will be skinning, but may well be worth taking anyhow.
7. Newcastle vs Chelsea 4.5 3.3 1.7
Chelsea are unstoppable, Newcastle are in disarray. It's difficult to see where Chelsea are going to be beaten by Newcastle. The Blues are better all over the pitch and on the bench. Newcastle have more important things to worry about in the league, while Chelsea have practically won it already. The 1.7 from BAW is nice enough as it is and is unlikely to be bettered.
8. Arsenal vs West Ham or Sheffield United
Arsenal will most likely win it what is on paper the easiest tie of the round to call. Confidence will be shot after going down to Man Utd. Like Utd, with a tough CL tie and an insurmountable gap to Chelsea, the FA Cup takes on added significance. Arsenal will win simply enough against either team. Expect prices around 1/5. 1/4 and above is worth taking.
BBC
