What it is? It is the second largest rugby union tournament in the world (behind the World Cup) - An annual jamboree starting in the winter and unfolding into the spring. Devotees in their tens of thousands will flock to Edinburgh, Dublin, Paris, London, Cardiff and Rome. Old acquaintances will be renewed. Songs will be sung. Lots of drink will be consumed. Rival fans will share beers and tears. Sometimes the wives and girlfriends will be brought for the shopping. Occasionally the odd cultural event will be added. The city centre of the smaller cities - Dublin, Cardiff, Edinburgh will be taken over by the atmosphere. And sometimes, most times even, amid all the revelry, some rugby matches will take place.
"Expect Ireland to do the difficult bit amazingly well and then forget how to do the easy part. Oh, and expect to meet lots of Scots called Alastair."
What to expect overall
Expect a carnival atmosphere anywhere near the grounds on match days. Expect rival fans to be seated or standing next to each other, often singing each others songs. Expect lots of Anthems if you go to Dublin.
Expect perfectly decent Englishmen to be bemused as to why the Celts dislike them. Expect the Celts to murmur about William Wallace, coal mines, and famines before sharing pints with said Englishmen and remarking afterwards that those particular lads were alright.
Expect rampant misplaced optimism from the Welsh before the tournament and deepest gloom once something goes wrong.
Expect at least one of the English coaching or playing staff to make a silly remark which will wind up their opponents. Expect their opponents also to get wound up over at least 20 other innocuous comments. Expect the English to be called arrogant if they say after a game that they expected to win, and to be called smug if they say they were lucky to win.
Expect the French to amazingly brilliant and awfully bad within the same week, sometimes within the same minute. Expect Ireland to do the difficult bit amazingly well and then forget how to do the easy part. Oh, and expect to meet lots of Scots called Alastair.
What to expect from the individual teams
"France... On their day the most brilliant and dazzling team in the world - if the Gods play rugby, then they play it like this. "
France Most peoples, including the bookies, favourites to win the tournament. On their day the most brilliant and dazzling team in the world - if the Gods play rugby, then they play it like this. Equally capable of disinterest and gallic sulking. They have the second largest player base and a thriving club system - illustrated by the presence of 3 of their teams in the Heineken Cup quarter finals - all with home draws secured also.
Coach Bernard Laporte is the longest-serving of the current six nations coaches and has succeeded in grafting a disciplined approach onto the nationals team play, albeit at times sacrificing a little flair. With 2 grand slams to their credit though, they are a team to be taken seriously. It is somewhat difficult to predict their team, but one can be sure that any names not familiar to UK fans will not be makeweights.
Their front row will probably be comprised of DeViliers, Marconnet and Servat, which is enough to give any team nightmares. In the second row, the veteran Pelous will surely be first name down, probably partnered by Jerome Thion.
In the back row Imanol Harinordoquay is under severe pressure, as is Olivier Magne. Betsen is a cast iron certainty to play, and it may well be that Julain Bonnaire and Thomas Lievremont will come in.
At scrum half it is a toss-up between Yachvilli and Elissade, while an outside bet for fly-half would be Damien Traille of Biarrits, who will otherwise occupy the number 12 shirt. Brian Liebenberg and Tony Marsh will be there and thereabouts for the centre slots, while the back three will probably be Heymans, Rougerie and Poitrenaud.
Main strengths: Brute force up front with huge strength in depth
Concerns: Lack real control at half-back, and a (quite possible) backline of Liebenberg, Marsh, Rougerie, Heymans & Poitrenaud while very powerful doesn't have the same attacking threat that we often expect from French three-quarter lines. Having their two main rivals away from home.
Probable finishing position: 1-2
England Still favourites with some bookies - a position I can only explain based on weight of patriotic money. Current World Cup holders and the best team in the northern hemisphere for most of the last 10 years, their time may be coming to a (temporary) end, as the mighty team of old fades away to be replaced by new faces and forces. With unparalleled playing and financial resources to draw from, their biggest enemy perversely comes from within - the sheer quantity and intensity of matches in their domestic league - where the clubs are the paymasters (unlike in most other rugby countries).
The result is that they have been shorn through injury and retirement of about a dozen of their world-cup winning squad of 15 months ago, with another 10-12 contenders also on the injured list. New coach Andy Robinson will be feeling the pressure shortly, if not already, and even the stunning win against SA in the autumn will not compensate if things go pear-shaped here.
The front row will probably be Rowntree, Thompson and White, with the Bath pair of Grewcock and Borthwick behind them. In the back row, Lewis Moody and Joe Worsely will probably be given the shop of shepherding Andy Hazell into the 6N. Andy Beattie is a dark hose who may yet see Moody move to the open side. Coach Robinson may have to bite his tongue and recall Matt Dawson given the chronic inexperience in the key sector of the team.
Outside him will be Charlie Hodgson. Centre will be intriguing because unless Robinson can someone bring back Henry Paul (who he hauled off after only 20 minutes in the autumn), then it could well see a combination of Josh Lewsey and Ollie Smith. The alternatives might be using Olly Barkley at no 12 or possibly uniting the Newcastle pair of Noon and Tait.
The back three will be Cueto, Robinson and Lewsey - if not required elsewhere - otherwise probably Voyce or Cohen will come in.
Main strengths: Strong scrummage with many ball carrying forwards
Concerns: Trying to get any sort of coherence behind the scrum - something they haven't managed for 2 years and they now have to do with untried partnerships and inexperienced players. The lack of a leader in the team for when things get tough - unless Dawson gets the nod
Probable finishing position: 3
Ireland Much longer with most bookies than I expected. They have their two main opponents at home, and their two easiest matches (albeit away) up first. Have been in the top 3 for the last 5 years and with the exception of Keith Gleeson are relatively injury free. Unlike England and France, Ireland operates a centralised system where the paymasters and controllers of the players are the national team, ensuring that they players get plenty of rest and are not overplayed.
Consequently tend to keep key players in better shape, although this is neutralised to some extent by the sheer weight of numbers and battle-hardness of their main rivals. An unbeaten autumn series, two (of 3) teams through to the Heineken Cup quarter finals and current Triple Crown holders, these players are used to winning. Crucially too, they are of an age where the legs haven't yet gone (or even nearly so in many cases) and there is huge experience there. Probably the easiest team to pick, the likely line-up will be:
Corrigan (although Marcus Horan is now strongly pushing), Byrne and Hayes, followed by Paul O'Connell and Mal O'Kelly. Behind them there is an embarrassment of riches, where it is almost perm any 3 from 7. Assuming that the current incumbents deserve to retain their places and coach O'Sullivan is inclined to the wide game, then Easterby, Foley and O'Connor is the lineup. The Munster pair of Stringer and O'Gara will be asked to direct operations. Hickie and Horgan will take the flanks outside their provincial counterparts O'Driscoll and D'Arcy, with Geordan Murphy at full-back.
Main strengths: Pacy, skilled back-line with experienced decision makers in key positions. Good lineout and maul. Two main rivals at home
Concerns: Sometimes suspect scrummage, certainly compared to England and France. Lack of ball-carrying power in the forwards. Lack of depth in key positions
Probable finishing position: 1-2
Wales Optimism is high once again, and I suspect misplaced once again. After a world-cup which I believed to be smoke and mirrors they changed coach and had mixed 6N, making me eat my words against Italy, but being annihilated by Ireland. They showed in the autumn that they do really possess an ability to hang in there in hard games and their regional rugby is leading to markedly increased standards.
Belief and momentum count for a lot in rugby though, and the Welsh team certainly have them both right now. One worries though that the crunch could come on February 26th in Paris. A heavy defeat there (which I would expect) could prick the balloon.
Likely team: Thomas, Davies, Jones, Charteris, Cockbain, Charvis, Jones, Owen, Peel, Jones, Henson, Parker, Shanklin, Williams, Thomas.
Main strengths: Spirited feisty and unpredictable in attack, especially from turnovers. Good kicking from Jones and Henson
Concerns: Defensive capabilities of back three, ability of pack to deal with top setpiece and mauling game of Ireland, England and France.
Probable finishing position: 4
Scotland Riven by dissent at the moment as the national governing body descends into anarchic civil war, the news on the pitch isn't much better, with maybe a glimmer of hope shown in the last weekends results. Realistically looking to stay ahead of Italy and improve to Wales level is about the summit of their ambitions.
Home wins against Italy and Wales is probably the minimum required to keep Matt Williams in a job, and he'll need to keep the margins down against the other 3. It is hard to see evidence of where anything else is going to come from, and a final result sequence of away spankings to England and France, with losses at home to Wales and Ireland and a squeaky win past Italy is not at all hard to imagine.
Likely team: Smith, Bulloch and Jacobsen. Grimes and Murray in the second row. Back row looks tricky with Simon Taylor and McFaydenn on the injured list. Probably Hogg, White and Petrie. Halfbacks Cussiter and Parks. Lamont and Webster on the wings, with Patterson at full back and Henderson and Morisson in the centre.
Main strengths: 3 home games. Nowhere to go but up
Concerns: Difficult to pick more than 3 or so players who'd be in serious contention for the teams of England, France or Ireland.
Probable finishing position: 5
Italy Unfortunate to have seen so many of their best players hit retirement age, just as they had earned entry to the 6N. Have some quality coming through, but need to increase their fan base at home to fill out the rest of the team. Coach Kirwan understands the Italian psyche better than most outsiders have done, but he still doesn't convince as a top-level coach.
Plenty of grunt upfront, they principally lack the match fitness and hardness gained from playing regularly at this level, and also some attacking nous in the back-line. Their front row won't take any prisoners with Castrogiovanni (a fantastic player), Ongaro and LoCicero a solid unit in anyones book. Second row will probably be Bortalami and Delappe, while the back row should see Parisse (another excellend player) flanked by Bergamasco and Persico. Paul Griffen and De Marginey will form the 'adopted Italian' control centre (below par for this level), with probably Masi and Stoica in the centre. The back three looks a little threadbare with the enthusiastic, if erratic, Birgamasco jr augmented by Canale (another fine player) and possibly Robertson.
Main strengths: Aggressive physical set of forwards who make things awkward.
Concerns: Poor half-backs and a lack of fitness.
Probable finishing position: 6
Possible bets to look at Italy to finish above Scotland. Italy have Wales at home and might be able to sneak a result, or alternatively to overturn Scotland in Murrayfield - which they'll surely target. One of those wins and Scotland could be in trouble. No odds yet, but anything over about 3.5 would be value in my opinion.
"lay England to win the 6 Nations - current odds in the region of 2.5. Too many injuries and two strong rivals."
Ireland for the Grand Slam. Currently 8 to 1 with Ladbrokes. Their first two games away are in Italy and Scotland, where the current odds are 1.1 and 1.2 respectively. That equates to about a 75-80% chance of coming into the france game undefeated, where were they to do so, they would certainly be odds-on at home (where they haven't lost to France in 6 years). A win there (lets say we are down to 45-50% now) would see the England game which I think they can and will win - and where they would again be odds-on favourites in this scenario.
At this stage we would looking at 3/1 to go into the Wales match undefeated, where the odds have to be better than evens. I think the fair odds are more like 6, and therefore this looks like a value bet.
Saving the best bet till last - lay England to win the 6 Nations - current odds in the region of 2.5. Too many injuries and two strong rivals.
BBC
