Compiling Soccer Odds for Dummies, part 3

In the last article we looked at using tables to set odds for football matches, in this one we shall look at a different type of table and assessment method. The examples given are from the book The Definitive Guide to Betting on Sport by Bruce Millington from the Racing Post expert series.

The method requires that we make an assessment of the strength of the teams involved and to do this we need to assemble some statistics about each team. Specifically we need to know average superiority, average goals per game, ratio of goals scored to conceded, percentage of homes, aways and draws and finally the average points gained per game. Let’s look at Liverpool v Portsmouth on the 19th November.

Below is an extract from the team rating table.

From this we see that the kind of team with an average goal difference of 1.2 can be expected to be involved in games averaging 2.8 goals, have a goal ratio of 71:29, win 65% of their games and average 2.16 points per game. Of course, in reality we will see some variation here and not every team will conform to the data in the table.

The relevant statistics for the teams we are assessing are given in the table below. I have used last season’s data to compile the numbers.

I’m sure you will agree that Liverpool are a good match for line J in the table and Portsmouth with Q. We can therefore describe the fixture as JQ. To find the odds for such a match up, we consult a second table, an extract of which is shown below.

The odds are to be found on the same line as JQ; 1.6, 4.44, 6.66.

Do you think you will be able to get better than 1.6 on Liverpool come the day?