2006 African Nations Cup – Egypt Jan 20 to Feb 10
Here’s my take on the Nations Cup.
The Attack, Defence and Overall rankings are my own. They are based on performances at home and away during the last 5 years, with the most recent games weighting more heavily. The strengths of the opposing teams were also taken into account.
The rankings are from 1=top, through to 16=lowest for the 16 finalists.
The odds quoted are from Bet365.
In a hurry? A summary of my predictions is at the bottom.
Group A
Egypt has an outstanding home record - this team scores goals!
20/04/2000 Egypt 2 0 Mauritius
23/04/2000 Egypt 4 2 Mauritius
02/09/2000 Egypt 1 0 Ivory Coast
14/01/2001 Egypt 4 0 Libya
28/01/2001 Egypt 0 0 Morocco
11/03/2001 Egypt 5 2 Algeria
06/05/2001 Egypt 1 0 Senegal
03/06/2001 Egypt 3 2 Sudan
13/07/2001 Egypt 8 2 Namibia
08/06/2003 Egypt 7 0 Mauritius
20/06/2003 Egypt 6 0 Madagascar
20/06/2004 Egypt 1 2 Ivory Coast
05/09/2004 Egypt 3 2 Cameroon
27/03/2005 Egypt 4 1 Libya
05/06/2005 Egypt 6 1 Sudan
04/09/2005 Egypt 4 1 Benin
WCQ/ANQ : 3 rd behind Ivory Coast and Cameroon, but ahead of Libya
Attack: 1 Defence: 11 Overall: 2
Odds: 5/1
My view: Home advantage and locally based players can take this team all the way.
They remind me of… Man United at Old Trafford
Look out for… An Egyptian military general instructing the opposition to go out and ‘lose for your own safety’ – as is rumoured happened in the 1986 final against Cameroon. Egypt won in extra time!
Ivory Coast has a star-packed squad whose confidence is sky-high.
WCQ/ANQ : 1 st ahead of Cameroon, Egypt and Libya
Attack: 4 Defence: 3 Overall: 3
Odds: 6/1
My view: Don’t believe the hype – just yet. Three North African teams to deal with in this group is a very tall order – effectively three away matches in a continent where home advantage is very significant. Nice team to watch though possibly facing an early exit.
They remind me of… Arsenal
Look out for… so many squandered chances, you’ll wonder how any team could miss so many – as this is the way they have played at every Nation’s Cup in memory. Let’s hope the president doesn’t lock them up again…
Morocco has a super-solid defence, and their third coach in three months…
WCQ/ANQ : 2 nd behind Tunisia, but ahead of Guinea
Attack: 10 Defence: 1 Overall: 7
Odds: 14/1
My view: The runners-up in the last Nations Cup might struggle to get through this group with drawn games or a poor goal difference. But watch out for this North African team if they get to the knockout stages as this team just doesn’t concede goals (unless, see below…).
They remind me of… Liverpool
Look out for… The goalkeeper inexplicably missing a cross, with three covering defenders jumping together and heading an own goal – as happened in their last WCQ against Tunisia. A goal that put Morocco out!
Libya has an in-form defence, but plays terribly away from home.
WCQ/ANQ : 4 th behind Ivory Coast, Cameroon and Egypt
Attack: 16 Defence: 8 Overall: 14
Odds: 100/1
My view: They can beat good teams in Tripoli, but rarely gain a point away. Libya might sneak a goalless draw somewhere, but nothing else.
They remind me of… Portsmouth
Look out for… Gaddafi’s son – he used to be the centre forward and he’s still a reserve striker for Udinese!
Group B
Cameroon has an excellent defence, and is one team that can win in Africa when playing away from home.
WCQ/ANQ : 2 nd behind Ivory Coast, but ahead of Egypt and Libya
Attack: 7 Defence: 2 Overall: 5
Odds: 9/2 Fav
My view: Favourites, but based on reputation mostly. This team was only a ‘265 th minute time added on for being at home’ penalty miss away from Germany. A lot depends on whether Et’o plays or stays with Barcelona, but they will certainly take some beating.
They remind me of… Chelsea , but with old players
Look out for… their sponsors coming up with another dodgy kit, like that one-piece rubbish from the last Nations Cup.
Angola has a decent strike force that has been under-performing recently.
WCQ/ANQ : 1 st ahead of Nigeria and Zimbabwe.
Attack: 12 Defence: 4 Overall: 10
Odds: 14/1
My view: No team from Southern Africa ever does anything up here, and Angola are one of the worst travelling teams. Ironically, it was a 1-0 away win in Rwanda that gave them the passport to Germany. It was their first away win in five years. Will take an early plane home…
They remind me of… West Ham
Look out for… lots of sendings off. Their friendly in Portugal last year was abandoned after five players got their marching orders…and they’ll be in Portugal’s group in Germany!!
Togo has a fantastic counter-attacking team, but they always seem to concede an early goal…
WCQ/ANQ : 1 st ahead of Senegal and Zambia.
Attack: 5 Defence: 12 Overall: 9
Odds: 14/1
My view: Good chances to qualify here ahead of the Southern African teams. If so then anything can happen. They possess an unstoppable World Class striker in Adebayor of Monaco – think of a tall but polite Wayne Rooney.
They remind me of… Wigan
Look out for… the goalkeeper sprinkling magical voodoo-liquid on the penalty spot, as happens just after kick-off in every match. It works, as his penalty save against Senegal showed in what was a crucial World Cup qualification match.
D.R.Congo has a decent strike force, but they underperform away from home
WCQ/ANQ : 2 nd behind Ghana, but ahead of South Africa
Attack: 14 Defence: 14 Overall: 15
Odds: 50/1
My view: Another team that cannot play in North Africa. Recent results include 3-0 and 6-0 drubbings in Tunisia. Libya and Rwanda (in the last Nations Cup) have also beaten DRC on their trips to North Africa. Expect an early exit.
They remind me of… West Brom
Look out for… the moaning striker Lua-Lua to pull out of the squad at the last minute, as often happens.
Group C
Tunisia has a very strong attack-based team with a winning mentality.
WCQ/ANQ : 1 st ahead of Morocco and Guinea
Attack: 3 Defence: 10 Overall: 4
Odds: 7/1
My view: Current champions and the North Africans are in with another great chance here. Should qualify comfortably from the group, and have the ability to score against any team. Some players are getting a bit old though now.
They remind me of… Spurs, when Spurs play very well!
Look out for… the ball boys disappearing with the balls if Tunisia are ahead (and not playing Egypt), as happened when they hosted the last Nations Cup. The Ref played 13 minutes of time added on at the end of their semi-final against Senegal!
Zambia has a young, locally based team and are rebuilding for the future
WCQ/ANQ : 3 rd behind Togo and Senegal
Attack: 11 Defence: 13 Overall: 12
Odds: 25/1
My view: Have a fair chance to make the quarter-finals, but no further. A team that plays nice football but always seems to be unlucky. The team is mainly locally based and will have had one of the longest preparatory training camps.
They remind me of… Aston Villa (I’m running out of teams here…)
Look out for… losing thrilling games perhaps with marginal decisions going against them, as seems to always happen to them in Nations Cup Finals.
Guinea has a team made up of many Euro based players
WCQ/ANQ : 3 rd behind Tunisia and Egypt
Attack: 13 Defence: 9 Overall: 11
Odds: 33/1
My view: Chances to create an upset here, in a relatively low-key qualifying group. This West African team will no doubt fancy their chances of physically overpowering the two teams from Southern Africa.
They remind me of… Middlesbrough
Look out for… the coach – great hair, Einstein style. Typical of all expat coaches in Africa. (Remember that lunatic French guy for Senegal?)
South Africa is rebuilding a team in time to host the 2010 World Cup
WCQ/ANQ : 3 rd behind Ghana and DRCongo
Attack: 15 Defence: 16 Overall: 16
Odds: 14/1
My view: Inexplicably short odds for one of the fallen giants of African football. A dreadful qualifying campaign that nearly came off the rails completely on the last day, with Burkina Faso nearly sneaking through to Egypt. I would be amazed to see this team go far in the tournament with a young side and playing in North Africa.
They remind me of… Everton
Look out for… all the excuses the South African media has ready prepared for failure here, as has happened at all major finals since their only victory when hosting in 1996.
Group D
Ghana has an in form team with as yet untested potential
WCQ/ANQ : 1 st ahead of DRCongo and South Africa
Attack: 8 Defence: 7 Overall: 8
Odds: 12/1
My view: May fall short with an early exit – Nigeria and Senegal are just too strong. However a team to watch should they qualify and the momentum begins to build.
They remind me of… Man City
Look out for… An absolutely cracking opening game between Ghana and Nigeria, as these derby games always go either way.
Senegal has most of the same players that made it to the last World Cup Quarter-Finals
WCQ/ANQ : 2 nd behind Togo, but ahead of Zambia
Attack: 6 Defence: 5 Overall: 6
Odds: 10/1
My view: A very strong, physical team filled with quality players. When this team is in form they are one of the best counter attacking teams around and very hard to score against. Every chance to do well if they can survive the group stage.
They remind me of… Bolton
Look out for… some of the most cynical sportsmanship in the game. Happens always when Senegal take the lead. I love watching this team!
Nigeria has the best individual players on paper, but needs them all to turn up and play as a team
WCQ/ANQ : 2 nd behind Angola, but ahead of Zimbabwe
Attack: 2 Defence: 6 Overall: 1
Odds: 8/1
My view: A great chance of winning if all the top players turn up and play to their potential. Unfortunately history shows this is unlikely and the in-fighting and bureaucratic wrangling that is going on even now may scupper Nigeria again. Great team to watch and absolutely the best team on their day.
They remind me of… Newcastle , in the Keegan day when they were playing very, very well…actually they remind me of Holland but they’re not in the EPL are they…
Look out for… the goal celebrations. I like the ‘dog-pissing’ one but Yekini grabbing the net was always a good one too…
Zimbabwe has a team that just won the COSAFA cup – but that won’t mean much up in Cairo…
WCQ/ANQ : 3 rd behind Angola and Nigeria
Attack: 9 Defence: 15 Overall: 13
Odds: 66/1
My view: Thrashed 3-0 at home, and 5-1 away by Nigeria in the qualifiers, it would be some turn around if Zimbabwe changes anything here. Add in Senegal and Ghana and you can certainly write off this Southern African team from progressing. Going home quickly.
They remind me of… Sunderland
Look out for… boos and hissing from the Egyptian crowd. Zimbabwe and Egypt have been at war since a fiery World Cup Play-off in 1993. At least they would have been at war if Sudan, Uganda, DRCongo and Zambia were not in the way. Mugabe started it by saying the Egyptians cheated in the style of pigs and dogs…the Egyptian media retaliated by saying Zimbabweans eat monkeys…FIFA made Egypt replay the match…and Egypt won…now how much money did Grobelaar make on that one…….
Summary
This Nations Cup is wide open…any of about eight teams have a real chance.
I think Nigeria have the team that is playing the most effective football at the moment…but they may not get all their best players together for this tournament, and playing in North Africa does not suit this team.
There is something about Morocco that I really like too. This team is the only one that went unbeaten in qualifying, and has the meanest defence in African football. I would really fancy this team if they could guarantee making the knockout stages, but they may not score the goals required to qualify against Egypt and Ivory Coast. Worth an outside bet for value.
So who do I think the winners will be? Home advantage is just massive in African football. Simple stats show that it is worth nearly a goal. The North African teams are the beneficiaries this time around, and I think Egypt, together with their prolific goalscorers are good enough to take advantage of this and win the cup.
To win: Egypt value: Morocco
BBC
