Greg Gordon's Betting Experiment part 4

In the previous articles we looked at analyzing the performance of Gregs tipsters, developing a prudent yet profitable staking plan, and a checklist of things to do before setting out on this adventure. In this article I’m going to explore an alternative route – that of taking free tipsters and using their information in place of the subscription tipsters that Greg used.

"I'm going to explore an alternative route - that of taking free tipsters and using their information in place of the subscription tipsters."

The free tipsters will be a selection of some of those posting at Punters-Paradise.com. Let me stress, that there are many profitable tipsters at the forum other than the ones listed below – but I just took a selection!

We may recall that we concluded a previous article, looking at the expected monthly profit after implementing our sensible staking plan, and making some conservative judgements about likely future performance.

It is fair to note at this juncture, that following the publication of Greg’smost recent Observer article , some of our members raised questions about the quoted performance. We’ll have a look at the numbers and get back to you on this one!

"Assuming for now that we can rely on the integrity of the data, we saw that we could expect a monthly profit of £1600 using a starting bank of £10,000."

However, assuming for now that we can rely on the integrity of the data (something outside our remit in the analysis that we did for Greg), we saw that we could expect a monthly profit of £1600 using a starting bank of £10,000 (no mean performance!). Of course this figure was a gross profit figure and didn’t take account of the cost of monthly subscriptions, which are given below

• Singles Club £133.33
• SLH £115
• Mathematician £40

However, even accounting for costs, the (low-risk) return expected (noting the caveats about the integrity of the data), is in the region of £1300 per month. That is the ‘target’ we’ll be shooting for using our free tipster.

Our analysis of the subscription tipsters gave us the following

Service	Av. Odds	Strike Rate, %	Yield, %	Bets per month	Units profit per month
Sport4Profit - Golf	8.1	12.6%	2%	18	0.36
Sport4Profit - Singles	1.8	62.5%	14%	7	0.98
SLH Private	5.2	29.7%	53%	11	5.83
SLH Premium	3.0	35.3%	5%	2	0.1
The Mathematician	3.6	30.6%	10%	7	0.7
Gregs Football	3.2	34.4%	10%	10	1

Doing the same with our free tipsters we get the following:

Service	Av. Odds	Strike Rate, %	Yield, %	Bets per month	Units profit per month
EB1 - racing	5.02	22.7%	13.8%	39	5.43
Ken Turrell - racing	7.95	14.3%	13.3%	112	14.94
Dimb-sung – Premiership, A/H	2.08	58%	20%	36	7.21
Zonker – NBA handicap/totals	1.93	63%	10%	28	2.78
Raven – Football O/U	2.02	50%	2.1%	113	2.36
OddsAgainst – Premiership 1X2	2.12	52.8%	12.1%	21	2.57
TBGS – misc.	1.50	67.4%	1.2%	295	3.46

Our next task, as before was to calculate a safe percentage to stake on each bet. Again we took our criteria to be the appropriate stake size (for each system individually) to keep the risk of dropping below 50% of our starting bank within a 100 bet sequence to 5% or less.

Service	Stake Size, %
EB1 - racing	1.8%
Ken Turrell - racing	1.2%
Dimb-sung – Premiership, A/H	7.0%
Zonker – NBA handicap/totals	4.3%
Raven – Football O/U	2.7%
OddsAgainst – Premiership 1X2	4.3%
TBGS – misc.	2.3%

As before we needed to reduce these stakes to account for the fact that we are running the systems in parallel. Once again we did this by weighting the stakes above by the expected units profit per month (based on unit stakes). The suggested stakes, for our fictional £10,000 bank are:

Service	Stake Size, £
EB1 - racing	£25
Ken Turrell - racing	£46
Dimb-sung – Premiership, A/H	£130
Zonker – NBA handicap/totals	£31
Raven – Football O/U	£16
OddsAgainst – Premiership 1X2	£29
TBGS – misc.	£35

"How do we compare to our targest profit of £1300 per month achieved by the subscription methods (net of charges)? We comfortably exceed it! ."

A comparison to our ‘portfolio’ of subscription tipsters shows a much healthier distribution of betting (in the subscription tipster system we were relying on the SLH Private service for 65% of our profits with Greg’s football being the next biggest contributor at 11%, whereas here we have Kens system contributing 38% and all the rest contributing being 6% and 19%).

And the big question – how do we compare to our targest profit of £1300 per month achieved by the subscription methods (net of charges)? We comfortably exceed it!

Our anticipated monthly profit with this system is just over £2,000 per month!