PP: First off, thanks for doing this. Your reward will be in Paradise. Let’s start at the beginning: How did you first get into betting?
Gerry: My old man had punt on the horses every Saturday, so I’ll blame him. I’ve enjoyed betting for as long as I can remember, I used to lose my dinner money throwing coins at a wall, and I’d spend every other dinner time waiting outside William Hill’s in Kings Heath, asking punters nipping in to put on a 10p yankee for ‘my Dad’.
"Me and a lad called Stephen Wilson would pick 2 horses each and go halves on a 10p yankee; I don't think we ever copped a return."
PP: Ah, an early degenerate. OK, so was it betting on football in William Hillh or were you on the nags?
Gerry: Nags at the time, me and a lad called Stephen Wilson would pick 2 horses each and go halves on a 10p yankee; I don't think we ever copped a return.
PP: When do you think you first started getting a clue about how to bet properly?
Gerry: Not until my early twenties really, as a teenager I was still betting on horses and greyhounds, and still losing money
PP: Was it the switch to football betting that changed things?
Gerry: To a certain degree, I’d still lose money playing the football, but I wasn't as heartbroken by any losses if the decision to make the bet was a correct one.
PP: Were you reading Racing and Football Outlook at the time, things like that?
Gerry: I was, I was working for a bookmakers from 18 years old, so I always had my head in the Post and the RFO. Both helped me improve my betting strategy.
PP: Right. So when did you first start pricing up books?
Gerry: When I joined Super Soccer about 6 years ago. I dipped my toes in the pool with first goalscorer betting for the lower leagues, and moved on from there.
"Stats such as 'West Ham haven't won at Highbury for 30 years' are interesting, but pretty much irrelevant when pricing up a match."
PP: Cool. How do you go about pricing up a book?
Gerry: It differs from market to market. For speciality markets such as bookings or corners, stats are everything. For football match odds, it’s a lot more complicated. Stats such as ‘West Ham haven’t won at Highbury for 30 years’ are interesting, but unless the two teams have met the week before, historical stats are pretty much irrelevant when pricing up a match.
Recent form and team news are the two biggest factors.
PP: So statistical models for 1X2 markets wouldn't interest you?
Gerry: Everything that can help us price a match up with complete confidence would help us, but statistical models would struggle to take in to account a flu bug at a training ground for instance.
PP: Sure. How strongly do you weigh psychological/motivational factors i.e. "Middlesbrough can't afford to lose this one" or "Mark Hughes will want to put one over on his old boss Ferguson"
Gerry: The psychological factors aren't too much of a factor to be honest, such as the Hughes-Ferguson example. But when a team needs to win a match to avoid relegation for example, last season's match between Southampton and Man Utd springs to mind, the odds on the team needing the win are slashed dramatically.
PP: Do you have a set formula you put recent form through to come up with an initial price which you then tweak depending upon the team news and motivational factors?
Gerry: I personally use a rating system as a guide for my initial tissue price that takes in to account recent form etc, and then tinker the odds depending on team news etc
"You have to collect stats from as many places as possible; I have a collection of stats for all the major European leagues for the last 10 year."
PP: Where do you go for information for your pricing? Are there particular stats sites you use for example?
Gerry: You have to collect stats from as many places as possible; I have a collection of stats for all the major European leagues for the last 10 years. Soccerbase is the site I use most often
PP: Football 365 have a very good stats section.
Gerry: Not too bad. They're on my favourites list. I actually have a spreadsheet that imports data from there, a very handy tool.
PP: Do you use Football-Data and RSSSF?
Gerry: I've used both, I was very impressed by RSSSF, they have an incredible amount of stats for International football which are particularly hard to get your hands on
PP: What about betting books you've read or other useful resources you've found?
"I've never read a book on gambling, I learned the hard way."
Gerry: I’ve never read a book on gambling, I learned the hard way.
PP: Ah. Maybe you should write one?
Gerry: That's a great idea, I’m trying to spend less time at home with the wife, knocking out a book could be just the excuse I need.
PP: Heh. I meant to ask after the wife - she gets a bit of stick in your previews. Is she really that bad?
Gerry: To be honest, yes. She's the reason that I work 60 hours a week and I’m after a few more hours.
PP: My sympathies.
Gerry: It's my own fault - well me and the brewers of Carling Black Label should share the blame.
PP: Often the way.
In the next issue Gerry talks about liability management, how the over-round is distributed and reveals the bookies whose compilers he respects the most in the industry.
BBC
