Short-handed Play and Hand Values part 2

Short-handed poker is all about aggression. You simply can’t afford to wait for premium (or even good!) hands, as the blinds will just devour your stack. In many short-handed situations the blinds will be so big that they devour a significant portion (10% or more) of your stack.

"In such scenarios, it is often the first person to show strength who wins the pot. Most pots will be won uncontested by someone entering with a raise."

In such scenarios, it is often the first person to show strength who wins the pot. Most pots will be won uncontested by someone entering with a raise. Of those that are contested, a significant amount will see players all-in pre-flop. So, any time you get involved in a pot, you have to consider that it could be seeing all the chips move to the centre of the table! Bearing these things in mind, we’ll consider the following scenarios:

1. No one has entered the pot yet
2. There is a caller in front of you
3. There is a raise in front of you
4. There is a call followed by a raise before you
5. You have entered and someone plays back at you, i.e. puts you all-in or reraises a large amount

" In particular the relative stacks sizes of the players and your observations of them, as well as your table image, are paramount"

Before elaborating on the above, we’ll note that there is no right way to play, and no way we can provide a guide for all situations. In particular the relative stacks sizes of the players and your observations of them, as well as your table image, are paramount. The following are just some thoughts to help you get started.

No one has entered the pot yet

Have you a hand with solid playing value, i.e. in the top 20 or 30%? If so, you’ll usually want to raise and take the pot down without an argument. If players are deep stacked, or you are familiar with the players and them with you, or occasionally just for variety, you might want to limp in with some of the solid hands or monsters. Occasionally you can take a shot at an unopened pot with a weaker hand, but don’t get stubborn if you meet a challenge.

A special case arises where you are the small blind and there is only the big blind left to act. In such a situation, the first question you need to ask yourself is what sort of player is your opponent. Many players get hyper-aggressive in this situation and will raise all-in on any perceived weakness (e.g. someone limping). If you’re up against a player like that then you turn ‘conventional’ strategy on its head. Limp with your monsters and raise with your marginal hands.

Don’t get involved unless you have a hand in the top 20 or 30%. If your opponent is more ‘conventional’ than this, then you should be calling with any hand. Remember that you are getting 3-1 to limp in, and you are never that much of an underdog against a random hand (recall that the worst hand heads up, 32o, has a 31.2% chance of winning at showdown against a random hand).

However, you must remember to mix up your actions occasionally. Don’t be afraid to make the occasional raise with a weak hand against such a player, or to limp with a monster.

" Many people will play suited connectors or low pairs like this, or even unpaired high cards (a horrible play!)."

There is a caller in front of you

Be very careful! No-one (almost) calls with a weak hand in this situation. However, don’t go fearing a monster either. Many people will play suited connectors or low pairs like this, or even unpaired high cards (a horrible play!).

What we do know is that someone has something, so therefore we need something (a little better) to get involved. I’d generally want a hand in the top 20% here. Also, you need to factor in the likelihood of a raise behind you before getting involved.

There is a raise in front of you

Somewhat paradoxically, this usually is less to worry about than above, i.e. there is less reason to believe they have something strong – they may just be taking a shot at the pot. What you do exactly will depend on your read of the other player and also your hand strength. With a hand in the top 20% you’re usually going to play – you just need to decide whether to call or re-raise.

The usual considerations (players left to act, position, table image) all apply here. One thing you do need to be aware of though, is that if you enter a raised pot, the amount of money on the table means it will almost certainly go all-in if it is contested.

There is a call followed by a raise before you

This is one of the few situations directly comparable to a full table situation. Someone has a hand and someone else wants to take them on. If you get involved, you’re going to be all-in against at least one and probably 2 solid hands, maybe even better than solid! You better have a premium hand, preferably a big pair.

You have entered and someone plays back at you

This situation is not un-related to situations 2 and 3 above, in that here your ‘fear’ (i.e. being taken on) has come to pass. You are now no longer against a random hand, you’re against someone who wants to play. What you’ve got to do is to put him on a range of hands and see how your holding stacks up. To do this, we need to know how our hand stacks up against other types of hand. The following table should help – it shows the best case (your percentage chance of winning versus his), worst case and ‘average’ (i.e. a general figure you can use as a baseline for estimating) scenario for every combination of holdings.

Hand pairing	Max	Min	Expected	Comments
Pair against lower pair	83-17	80-20	81-19	Worst case scenario for the lower pair is where the cards are close in rank and share suits, e.g. AcAs vs KcKs
Pair against two overcards	56-44	46-54	51-49	Best case for the pair is against two separated non-suited cards, e.g. AJo versus 99. Worst case is a low pair (55 or less) against JTs
Pair against two undercards	87-13	77-23	83-17	Worst case is for the lower cards to be suited and with ‘live’ straight possibilities, e.g. 76s vs KK. Best case is the opposite, e.g. TcTs vs 9c8s
Pair against 1 over and 1 undercard	71-29	66-34	69-31	Best case is for the pair to interfere with straight draw, e.g. TT vs J9o. Worst case is against an Ace-baby suited, e.g. 99 vs A5s
Pair against 1 overcard plus same card	70-30	61-39	65-35	Worst case is against suited connectors, e.g. TcTs vs JhTh. Best case is something like 88 vs A8o
Pair against 1 undercard plus same card	93-7	82-18	88-12	Best case is where you have something like AcAs vs AhKc, i.e. you’ve damaged both straight and flush possibilities of your opponent. Worst case is a middle pair versus suited connectors, e.g. 88 vs 87s
Two overcards vs two undercards	66-34	58-42	65-35	Best case is as above, e.g. AcKc vs QcJh. Worst case is the opposite, e.g. AKo vs 76s with no suits shared
Over/under vs two in-between cards	62-38	51-49	60-40	Best case is something like A2s vs K8o – where the dominated hand has no straight possibilities but you do. The worst is the opposite, something like A2o vs 87s
Interleaved	69-31	57-43	65-35	Best case is for your opponents hands to be widely separated with no straight possibility, e.g. A8s vs J4o. Worst case is the opposite, e.g. A8o vs 97s
Dominated, same high card	76-24	50-50	70-30	Best case is for the opponent to have a very low kicker in one of your suits and you to be suited, e.g. KcQc vs Kh2c. Worst case is for you both to have a very low kicker and him to be suited, e.g. K3o vs K2s
Dominated, same low card	75-25	65-35	70-30	Best case is something like As2s vs 3s2d – i.e. he has a very low kicker (which might be counterfeited) and is offsuit. Worst case is something like A7o vs 87s.
Same ranks	52.5-47.5	50-50	50-50	Where one is suited and the other isn’t we have about a 2.5% advantage over unsuited.

What is interesting is that with the exception of a few combinations (e.g. pair against two undercards, or a lower pair, or a pair against the same card plus an overcard) where one side has a huge (80%+) chance, most combinations are 2-1 at best in favour of the strong hand. Even when considering facing a monster like AA it is interesting to note that 32o isn’t much worse to have than KK!

Lets look at an example to conclude this article:

Example
You are in the small blind with 3200 chips, while the big blind has 2000 chips. The blinds are 100/200 and the other two players left have folded to you. You have Q7o and decide to take a shot at the pot. You raise to 700. The other player goes all-in. There is now 3400 on the table and it costs you 1500 to call (after which you’ll be left with 1000 chips). Blinds raise to 200/400 next hand. What should you do?

Well, firstly recognize that if you call and lose, that you have little chance – you won’t even be able to meet the blinds. You are getting 2.4 to 1 to call, so you are theoretically correct to do so if you have a 32% chance or better of winning. To see if we have that chance, we need to take a look at what our opponent might be holding. We obviously can’t know for sure, all we can do is estimate the chance of the various types of hand Lets summarise it in the following table

Hand	Est. probability he has this hand	probability we win	Overall probability we’re good	Comment
AA or KK	4%	16%	0.6%	Why would he put us all-in? A call would be better for him
QQ	4%	12%	0.5%	We have one queen!
JJ-88	20%	32%	6%
77	3%	35%	1%	We have one seven!
Lower pair	8%	45%	3.5%
AK	7%	35%	2.4%
AQ	3%	30%	9%	We have a queen
AJ,AT, A9, A8	22%	35%	8%
A small	19%	40%	8%
Other	10%	50%	5%	Never neglect the possibility of an outright bluff!

Now obviously in a game we won’t have time to estimate all the above, but we can with experience get a feel for a few situations. However, lets proceed and see what happens. If we sum up the probabilities in the fourth column we get a total winning chance in the region of 44%. It is therefore an easy call for us!