football-tips


Contents
Home
Bookshop
Football
Newsletter
Issue 6
Issue 2
Issue 3
Issue 5
Issue 1
Issue 15
Issue 17
Issue 12
Issue 19
Issue 8
Issue 10
Issue 9
Issue 7
Issue 4
Issue 11
Issue 16
Big Brother 2006 Launch Night
Words From The Chief - May 2006
World Cup Preview: The Europeans
Ask the Doc: Poker part 3
World Cup Preview: The South Americans
Issue 18
Issue 13
Issue 14
Horse Racing
Other Sports
Tools
Poker
Betting Theory

Recent Forum Posts

 

online-betting Ask The Doc: Poker, part 3

"A life unexamined is not worth living" said Plato and that goes double for Poker. Doc shows Jamdog the error of his ways and how best to analyse play through the medium of Poker Tracker.

Doc: So, how goes the poker?

Jamdog: Meh. So-so. Not consistently winning yet. One thing I'm noticing is that I do slightly better when I move up a level. I have a theory that winning will get easier as I move up the tables because there are fewer looser players, fewer decisions to make.

Doc: It is true to some extent, but there is a basic truism that sums it up well. The most profitable style is the opposite of what most people at the table are playing: I.e. if they are playing loose, you tighten up and vice versa

Jamdog: Yes, that makes sense. You were going to look at my Poker Tracker stats?

Doc: Yeah, give me what you've got. I'm after total hands, VPIP, etc

Jamdog: OK. Total hands 2248, VPIP 19.13,VPSB 24.51, folded sb to steal 95.83, ASB 18.71, Won WSF 34, amount won -$16.11, BB/100 hands 6.32

Doc: Ok, that is reasonable

Doc: Your BB/100 is 6.32?

Jamdog: Minus

Doc: Ah...

Jamdog: Don't get clever

Doc: Well first impressions. VPIP is ok, maybe a little bit low, but probably fine. VPIP gives an indication of how many hands you play - i.e. what % of the time you voluntarily put money on the table

Jamdog: Gotcha.

Doc: The VPSB is definitely too low - mine is 43% for example. against a single player, you often want to raise, and against multiple players you can call with a whole range of hands - you're getting great odds

Jamdog: Yeah. I've recently been correcting that. I only just noticed some hands you could play from the split blind.

Doc: FSB (folded split blind)is also too big

Jamdog: What does that mean?

Doc: You need to defend your blind more often

Doc: It means that someone in late position has opened the betting with a raise and you have folded in the small blind. You need to be aware that people will try to pick up the blinds, and occasionally come out firing against them with a re-raise

Jamdog: Sure.

Doc: I'm happy enough with my play in that regard and my figure is 86%, so we're not talking a huge change E.g. I've about 2000 hands in my database from the SB position, from which I've lost 0.15 BB/hand

However, 0.25 BB/hand is what the blind is, so that in net terms I've made 0.1 BB/100 hand from that position. Your ASB could also be higher - mine is around 25%

Jamdog: ASB? Anti-Social Behaviour?

Doc: Attempt to steal blind.

Jamdog: Ah. I see.

Doc: Can you give me figures for Went to Showdown %, $Won at Showdown, PreFlop Raise% ?

Jamdog: Went to SD% 35.79, W$ at SD 47.48, PF Raise 8.99%

Doc: Ok, if you click on the "more detail" button above right of that area, it will bring up, em, more detail . If you scroll down, there is a heading called "First action on Flop....." should be broken down by raise, bet, call, check etc

Jamdog: Ok. They're: Raise 6.44, Bet 50 , Call 15.44, Check 5.94

Doc: I'd guess that you are being a little passive on the flop

Between bet and raise, you are only hitting 56% - you want to be closer to 70% I'd say, certainly 65%. you call is much too high at 15%

Jamdog: I reckon if you took my last 500 hands they'd be closer to 70% - I'm definitely more aggressive on the flop than I was.

Doc: That is good.

Jamdog: Tell me why call is too high

Doc: Remember that a bet on the flop is worth half the price of a bet on the turn - if there is any chance of you being involved on the turn (i.e. if you have anything other than a VERY weak draw) then you might as well raise in many cases - there will be a significant amount of time where you'll get the other player to fold.

Let me give you an example

Let's say you are in early/middle position, with no-one in the pot yet and several aggressive players behind you. You have 99. What should you do?

Jamdog: Raise! F*ck 'em.

Doc: Lol. Wrong !! 99 is good, but you'll almost certainly need help from the flop.

So just call - the aggressive players may raise, but unless they are very tight also, then a raise won't necessarily chase them out . you don't want to be paying 3 bets to see the flop out of position with 99 . If you were in late position, but first into the pot it might be worth a steal, but otherwise just call.

Jamdog: Ok

Doc: Ok, so you've called and one player behind raises you - what now?

Jamdog: Anyone else call his raise?

Doc: Nope - back to you for one bet

Jamdog: If he's a loose player it could be worth a call as he may raise with JT or something. if he's a tight player I fold.

Doc: Wrong - you need to call against ANY player there. In general if you have entered a pot, you should ALWAYS (with rare exceptions) call a single raise back to you

Jamdog: Really? Why?

Doc: Pot odds. in this case there is the big blind, small blind, your original bet, and his bet and raise. that is 4.5 small bets, i.e. you are getting 9/2 to call

Jamdog: Ok

Doc: Most players raising hands include many hands that you are currently ahead of - e.g. AK, AQ, etc

Doc: Also remember that there are 16 ways to get AK, but only 6 to get AA - i.e. statistically it is much more likely that the raise has a hand that you can beat.

Jamdog: Good - I think we've got enough now

Doc: Oh, I'm not finished yet!

Jamdog: Yes you are, sunshine. We'll pick this up next month.

Doc: You will regret your insolence, cur.

Jamdog: Whatevah.

The Doc continues his critique in the next issue.

football-betting Got a question or comment about Ask The Doc: Poker? Why not post it in our newsletter forum?

Latest Web News
BBC
Muntari set for £12.7m Inter move
- Inter Milan are poised to sign...

Liverpool snap up French teenager
- Liverpool sign 19-year-old str...

O'Neill wants decision over Barry
- Aston Villa boss Martin O'Neil...

England my last job, says Capello
- Fabio Capello says his role as...

Gardner set to join Hull on loan
- Hull City are set to sign Tott...

Rangers eye up Sunderland's Etuhu
- Rangers are considering a move...

Balde salary hinders Wolves move
- Wolves boss Mick McCarthy stil...

Sunderland sign versatile Tainio
- Sunderland announce the signin...

West Ham sign Lazio star Behrami
- West Ham sign Lazio's Switzerl...

Saints expect 'substantial' loss
- Southampton are anticipating p...



Links Relevant to this Topic

The Theory of Optimal Betting Spreads
The theory of optimal betting spreads for the game of Blackjack has a sound mathematical basis

Theory of Gambling
Gambling book reviews

The Layman's Guide to Probability
An in-depth but easily readable guide on probability theory

Betting Traders
Education for the betting revolution

© Punters Paradise. Material may not be used without express permission.