Papacy Betting

A certain Irish bookmaker, was recently seen being escorted from St Peter's Square, by some men in designer shades, frilly 'ruffs' and blue and gold panatloons (hard as nails those Swiss Guard boys). Apparently the Vatican were none too pleased about Paddy Power planting his board mezzo-piazza, and offering odds on who would succeed John Paul 2.

To be fair, at the least the Vatican were consistent in their position on the matter (unlike their position on several other matters, some may say), as they had severely scolded the same bookmaker some 18 months before, for opening the first Papal Betting book.

"the Church of Rome made their severe displeasure known; essentially telling Paddy that what he was doing was tantamount to original sin, and that he could expect the severest of chinese-burns."

It may have escaped many people's attention at the time, but the Church of Rome made their severe displeasure known; essentially telling Paddy that what he was doing was tantamount to original sin, and that he could expect the severest of chinese-burns, when he eventually had the 'big interview' with St Peter. Why would Paddy Power tweak the nose of the Universal Church, in such a manner?

Because, he is a man of honour, and is true to his word.

In August 2003, I was having a chat with a friend of mine, who shall remain nameless for legal reasons - but we'll refer to him as "Cygnet". Cygnet, like me, is a player of the horses, or a handicapper, or a mug - depending on your point of view - and we frequently discourse in matters of the Turf. Anyway, on this day, Cygnet and myself are indulging in idle chit-chat, about this and that, when he says that he has been helping out his uncle (who punches light-heavy in the Catholic Church in the States), with some research for a book.

During the course of said research, Cygnet's uncle talked of the Pope's failing health, and how he had "met the next Pope" a few months earlier, at some convention. Cygnet naturally enquired as to how could he possibly know who the next Pope was going to be, but his uncle was fairly adamant that the man in question had a huge chance, what with being respected and loved by all, and what not. He then revealed the name: Cardinal Oscar Rodriguez Maradiaga of Tegucigalpa.

Cygnet duly thanked his uncle for the information as he bade him farewell, which brings us to the day in question. After spending a few nanoseconds debating the significance of this information, we determined that the only proper course of action was to proceed directly to Paddy Power, without passing "Go".

Paddy Power were marginally suspicious upon first hearing Cygnet's request, and were clearly aware that such a move might not be the greatest PR stunt ever, given that the Pope was still a bit on the pale side. However, after a fortnight's deliberation, they duly opened a book.

Unfortunately, having hoped that they would make a total rick with our man's price, we found that they didn't even have him quoted in their original market. After e-mailing them again to ask for Oscar's odds, and them clearly starting to smell some kind of rodent (how could we not declare our hand?), they threw Oscar in at the miserly price of 16/1. By the end of the following day, I had collected several large wagers from assorted friends/colleagues, who, upon hearing such an outlandish tale, all decided that they too wanted in on this unlikeliest of coups.

However, when I attempted to lump on, my stake was limited to a mere pony by Paddy Power; a fraction of the wager planned. Taking the pony for myself, I reluctantly handed the cash back out the following day. However, about eight of my friends - none of whom are regular punters - opened Paddy Power accounts on the strength of this dubious plot, and duly had their own cash on at 16/1.

So, Paddy Power opened a novelty market one day, and were immediately faced with several thousands pounds worth of liabilities the next, largely from anonymous punters, who were only interested in playing in the most ludicrous proposition of the age. I don't know what his mindset was at the time, but Paddy may have been concerned about some kind of Parallax View scenario playing out, and Oscar was duly cut to 10/1 within the space of a week.

Following the sad demise of JP2 last month, Oscar was as short as 4/1 third-favourite at one stage, and whilst never making jolly, his price stood-up for a long time. He shortened up again as they went into Conclave, whilst early favourite Tettamanzi drifted like a Cuban exile. Money came in droves for the Latin American's, the Milanese and Venezian Cardinals had their supporters, and there was even money for the laughably named Lustinger of France.

But as the Bible teaches us: betting markets move in mysterious ways. Of course, as you all know by now, we were sunk by Joe Ratzinger and his gang of crimson-robed, jack-booted, hench-men; a result so moody, it would make The Generals beating the Harlem Globetrotters, look like a Festival event.

Not that I'm bitter.

Oscar himself was deemed too young, at 62, to become Pope, the consideration being that, although the next Pope was a direct descendent of St Peter, and God's true representative on Earth, it would be best all-round if he didn't live too long. We therefore realised our fate early doors, which made the outcome a little more bearable.

"Joe Ratzinger... a result so moody, it would make The Generals beating the Harlem Globetrotters, look like a Festival event."

From the small acorns of our original twenty-five nicker bets, grew a mighty Papal Punting Oak. Paddy has stated that the market was worth hundreds of thousands of Euro's to his company, and given how short Ratzinger was throughout, it must have been an absolute skinner of a result for them.

That being the case, surely a return of our stakes, or perhaps even a small stipend, is due to Grasshopper and Cygnet, for spotting the gap in the market, and giving Paddy a licence to print money? Come to think of it, we're probably due something from the Seven-Percenters as well.

For the record, should either outfit decide to do the right thing, and pony up some dough for us two mortals, I for one, will immediately play mine up on Paddy's "Next Again Pope" market, where Oscar is currently trading at 7/1. Trust me, the sax-tootling, ivory-tinkling, plane-flying, Honduran power-house, is an absolute tap-in next time.

Get on!