The Ashes 2005 preview

The English have served up the hors d’oeuvres and tasted the wine, the Aussies have cracked open the beer and the barby is nice and warm. Yes, ladies and gentlemen, sheilas and blokes, the appetites have been wetted; the Ashes feast is underway.

With the main course just a few tantalising weeks away, it is time to start thinking about just what the hell is going to happen this summer. Will this be, as many hope and some even expect, the closest series in a generation, or are we set for yet another round of belligerent pommie-bashing?

England have been riding along on the crest of an impressive cricketing wave for a number of years, and have even discovered how to play the one day game. Confidence is higher than Phil Tufnell on tour and with the exuberant South African-turned-southern-English-gent Kevin Pietersen making the step up from the one-day squad, the home side are in a very promising position to launch a worthy assault on the all-conquering Aussie side.

The Aussies, in the name of sportsmanship, have all aged a bit, and their most recent stabs at the more colourful versions of the game have been erratic at best, including capitulating to the biggest upset in history, succumbing to the woeful Bangladeshis.

The Waughs have gone, but their teamsheet is still like the accumulated vomit of a stomach that’s recently gorged on the who’s who 21 st century cricket; headed by the recently rejuvenated Shane Warne. And don’t forget the sledging. The Aussies like sledging so much that Jason Gillespie has even chosen to turn his hair into a permanently distracting insult.

"The Aussies like sledging so much that Jason Gillespie has even chosen to turn his hair into a permanently distracting insult."

But enough of the pleasantries. What about the money?

Cricket is great for making money, but you do have to delve into the stats somewhat. This is not quite as scary as it sounds.

Statistics are rarely cool; they’re usually reserved for the domain of Star Trek fans and people who wear cardigans. Come across someone who falls into both categories and chances are they’re a director at the ONS. With cricket, or creekit for all you Boycott fans, it’s different.

In cricket, stats are not just cool, they’re an integral part of the game, a pillar as fundamental as ripples of applause or the MCC. They’re also another reason to temporarily withdraw the test status of those gutsy little chaps from Bangladesh.

I could write a couple of thousand words on the general rules of betting-in running on international test cricket, and indeed I did once, but to avoid offending your body clock by sending you to sleep now, I’ll give but a brief summary.

Laying the draw is generally a Good Idea; it’s usually always too short. Teams score so quickly these days, time lost to rain is often made-up as to not make a difference and pitches deteriorate a lot more than people think over five days. Both teams can score over 400 in the first innings and still battle out a result, but look at the odds after a few days and the draw will probably be about 1.3.

Also in the general theme, estimates of total team runs are dramatically cut following a fall of a couple of quick wickets. This is a little odd, in that every innings usually sees a couple of wickets fall together, yet the original estimates have surely already taken this into account. You can understand the rationale, but quite often, the bookies overshoot, and if you’ve got the balls to bet ‘over’ when a team looks like it’s struggling, you could get handsomely rewarded.

Individual players often have ‘quirks’ in their run-ranges, i.e. when they are most likely to get out. Astutely combining this with the in-running market on their total runs can be as effortlessly profitable as a spot of good old-fashioned cheating. Brian Lara, for example, if he gets to 40 is likely to get to 100. Or, a lot of players are so happy when they get to 100; they usually lose their wicket before 120. Others generally make big tons, in the 150+ range. Cricket4.com will tell you all you need to know.

It will also tell you about significant upswings in results over the last one or two years. Andrew Flintoff, for example, averages about 50 over the last 12 months, compared to just over 30 overall. The bookies’ estimated totals are often based upon overall averages, and not the regularly more reliable recent results.

Other niches are trickier to glean from the stats, and rely on rather more deep knowledge of the game, but if you pay attention to those charming channel 4 presenters, you’ll always pick up a gem or two. For instance, Graham Thorpe is rubbish when England are doing well. Send him in at 400/3 and he’ll be trotting back to the changing room at 410/4. However, he loves a dogfight. If he goes in at 40/3, he’ll still be there in the morning.

"Graham Thorpe is rubbish when England are doing well. Send him in at 400/3 and he'll be trotting back to the changing room at 410/4."

You can find out things like this with most players if you look hard enough. The other thing when you’re trawling through those lovely, lovely stats, is to see how certain players do against their respective opposition.

Perhaps the best place to start with this is Michael Vaughan.

Skipper Vaughan’s form over the last few months has been ‘patchy’, shall we say. He doesn’t bat as well down the order (he averages 50 as an opener, 35 at number four) and where once he hit centuries every other time he went out to the middle, they’re now as rare as a metaphysician in Texas. But Vaughan shone against the Aussies down under, averaging an astonishing 63, and there is no reason to suspect he can’t up his game again. His Rolls-Royce technique can withstand any bowling attack, and if he isn’t fired up for captaining England for an Ashes series, he might as well retire now. I would give it an innings or two to see what the confidence is like, but I fully expect him to take the Aussie attack to pieces at least a couple of times over the summer.

In contrast to his captain, Trescothick’s recent form has been stunning. However, he’s always averaged about 200 against the sub-continent teams, while the fast-bowling Aussies and South Africans abuse the fact that he doesn’t move his feet and have him caught behind for about 12 on an annoyingly regular basis. Strauss may still be a bit of an unknown quantity, but I believe there will be value to be had early on opposing Trescothick, especially early on in the series, either through the individual innings runs market, or first man out.

Anyway, I’ve gone on for long enough, and there’s a whole world of excitement lurking within the bowels of the aforementioned cricket4.com or cricinfo’s Stats Guru. Happy hunting.