Big Brother 2005: The story so far...

Like a dog returns to its vomit, I return to betting on Big Brother. Sure, I flirted with New Year's specials but I always had one eye on May 27 - the day my one true love returned to our screens

I don't know about any of you but I like to start any reality TV show with a long odds winner in the first week. This year's model: First snog in the first week, between two girls at 20-1 (Paddy Power) .

"I don't know about any of you but I like to start any reality TV show with a long odds winner in the first week."

This bet was exclusively tipped on Punters Paradise, the forum that gave you Any Other ethnicity of the first contestant into the Big Brother house at 25-1.

The first snog bet has an interesting history. Last year Paddy Power priced up a similar market first snog between boy-girl, girl-girl, boy-boy. Inexplicably, they made boy-girl a strong odds-on favourite and priced girl-girl at 8-1.

Now, if you're fortunate enough to actually have a life and don't spend much time watching Big Brother you should know that the girl-girl snog is the staple act of depravity in the Big Brother house. It's a lot more acceptable than a boy-boy kiss for example - nobody really objects to a lesbian kiss (unless Clare Balding decides to tongue down Sandy Toksvig in an attempt to entice John McCririck into a threesome) and a girl can get away with it without being considered a slut. The lesbian kiss is generally more acceptable than the traditional heterosexual option. If a girl kisses a girl she is a saucy minx - if a girl kisses a boy she is a slut.

In the end the first snog was actually a three-way between two girls and a boy. After initially voiding the market Paddy Power came correct and did the right thing by settling the bet as a dead heat. So a decent profit was to be had.

So in 2005, Paddy Power decides to get tricky and a double up the timing of the snog with the gender make-up - this is what scared a lot of people off. Girls may snog but nobody ever snogs in the first week do they?

I priced the two bets up as following

Girl-girl: 1.5
First week: 11

True odds of the double: 16.5

So regardless of my reservations about the first week I thought this was a pricing error and it needed exploiting. And sure enough within 48 hours of Leslie entering the house the first snog was a three-way between Anthony, Vanessa and Lesley. Hurrah! Another dead heat and another first week Paddy Power bonanza. You can always rely on those toffs from the Emerald Isle - they never let you down. One of a handful of bookies who I would happily recommend to God, the Queen and my baldheaded grandma.

And then they welshed.

Yes, the mighty Paddy Power pulled a fast one, settling the bet as a boy-girl kiss. Not being one to walk away from an argument I contacted Paddy Power and asked the reason for the decision. Why, look at the video they said - Vanessa kisses Anthony first then Lesley joins in. That was plainly nonsense and many people, including myself, wrote protesting. So, under increasing pressure of irate customers and the fact that they were very plainly in the wrong Paddy Power find a new copy of the video which remarkably reveals that it WAS a three-way snog and they overturned their decision.

And then they voided.

This was getting beyond silly now. Paddy Power, a beacon of sanity, light and truth in the viper's nest of turf accountancy were spewing corporate gobbledygook, avoiding questions and toeing party lines like they'd been bought out by Ladbrokes. They were violating the precedent that they themselves had set - every support e-mail read like it was being answered by Waylon Smithers from The Simpsons. This could not stand. An IBAS form was filled in on the Sunday and ready to go in the post on the Monday. My first official complaint against a bookmaker and its against Paddy Power the fella who plays with as straight a bat as any in the industry - what odds would you have got against that?

It was all unnecessary in the end as the controversy finally reached somebody in Paddy Power who actually had a clue about customer relations and they took the decision to pay out fully on both boy-girl and girl-girl. This wasn't strictly necessary - we would have been happy with the dead heat as it was still a decent pay out, but Paddy Power recognised that they had some goodwill to make up and it was a very welcome start to the Big Brother betting.

" I certainly never thought I'd be spending much of my summers debating the semantics of a three-way snog on a betting exchange forum with a group of men I've never met"

It's very true that reality TV and betting make strange bedfellows. I certainly never thought I'd be spending much of my summers debating the semantics of a three-way snog on a betting exchange forum with a group of men I've never met - probably just as well; any foreknowledge of this and suicide would seem the only honourable way out.

So what do you do? You hold your nerve and go for the value - same as always. Which is obliquely linked to my following point, a section which I've decided to call

Big Brother betting is as bent as a dog's back leg and only a fool would take part in it.

The spectre of inside information has loomed large over this year's Big Brother. Apparently, some unscrupulous types have been playing the Big Brother markets with some kind of foreknowledge of the outcome of nominations and the like.

I certainly wouldn't want to be associated with anything like that and I'm sure the rest of Punters' Paradise agree with me. Right guys?

"Apparently, some unscrupulous types have been playing the Big Brother markets with some kind of foreknowledge of the outcome of nominations and the like."

The argument runs like this: You can't possibly play on a market where there is inside info! You're crazy! You can't win -- it's the rules!

My counter argument goes a little something like this:

Reasons why people don't win on Big Brother markets

1. They are not good enough judges of value.

2. See 1.

If you're a good judge of value on Big Brother, if you can skilfully interpret what has happened so far and infer from that what will happen in the future you will win long-term.

If you back Maxwell at 6 for eviction than there are two possibilities

i) Maxwell has a greater than one chance in six of being evicted in which case you do have value and will win long-term making this kind of decision.

ii) Maxwell has a less than one chance in six of being evicted in which case you do not have value and will lose long-term making this kind of decision

That's it. Really. The fact that Joe Schmo from Cocamo had some preview of the nominations and made his corn accordingly should not affect you. If Maxwell escapes the public vote that means that you misread the mood inside the house and will have to do better next time.

If you're wondering where inside info comes from then maybe you need to spend some time in bars frequented by tabloid hacks and TV producers, listening sympathetically and buying them whiskies, casually introducing the concept of betting exchanges and how someone with the right information could make money if they really wanted to.

Seems as good a place to start as any.