Betting on Cricket ODIs in-running

I don't bet in-running in one-day international cricket, as it can all get a bit crazy.

For example, just last month the West Indies needed 2 runs off the last over to beat South Africa with 3 wkts left. You could have had any odds you like on South Africa turning that one around... and then the South African bowler took a hattrick to win the match...unbelievable.

"the South African bowler took a hattrick to win the match...unbelievable."

Anyway, there was an interesting remark given during the commentary to England v Australia today - something I hadn't heard of before.

England needed something like 74 to win from the last 9 overs, and it was suggested that Australia rarely lose from these positions - in fact the captain uses a simple calculation during the match to assess the winning chances at any stage.

The rule is that once the chasing team needs 20 runs more than there are balls left to play, then the game is effectively won.

In the example above, with 9 overs left, that's 54 balls left plus 20, giving 74 - so England have too much left to chase and the game is effectively finished. The commentator said that Australia aim for this position and rarely lose from it - barring exceptional circumstances...

Of course in the game today, exceptional circumstances took over in the form of Pietersen - an incredible batting performance taking England home.

Still, I like this rule of thumb calculation, and it might be interesting to see just how early during a match this rule kicks in, and what the in-running market shows at that time. I'll be keeping a look out.

Of course there are many other factors - not least how many wickets are down. Still, in running is always a judgement call, and this rule might be as good as any to act as a guide.

"if it's the way the Australian captain is coached to read the game situation, and I can imagine they've put the research in, then I think it's worth a look ."

My intuition suggests it might be most useful at around the 20 to 12 overs to go stage - where most punters might see the game as still 'alive' in these situations, whilst the captain and team basically see it as 'all over'.

Of course, with no database of odds to check, there's no way of checking out how accurate this call is. Still, if it's the way the Australian captain is coached to read the game situation, and I can imagine they've put the research in, then I think it's worth a look.

So, what does 'rarely lose' in that particular situation mean? I'm not sure, but when that situation occurs in a game, and there is still about 1.20 available, I think I would be seriously interested in that now.

The calculation is easy to do - after all the Australian cricket captain does it in his head...but here's a table of 'rarely lost' scenarios for the lazy.

Overs	Runs needed
20	140
19	134
18	128
17	122
16	116
15	110
14	104
13	98
12	92
11	86
10	80
9	74
8	68
7	62
6	56
5	50
4	44
3	38
2	32