Pricing Up A Book: Horseracing

Where most horse racing punters get lost is that they try and cherry pick winners rather than concentrating their efforts on looking in depth at one or two races a day and looking for horses that are most likely to win at the right price.

"Where most horse racing punters get lost is that they try and cherry pick
winners rather than concentrating their efforts on looking in depth at one or two races a day"

In order to do this we must come up with a price for every runner in the race and this must be based on some sort of logic.

Firstly, you want the right race. I prefer to concentrate on class handicap races that are not age restricted, where there is plenty of form and pointers
for you to work with.

So, discard all races for 2-Y-O and 3-Y-O horses only and kick out any selling handicaps. Once you've done that you are left with the races that you want to have a go at.

Step One

The next step is to shape the race. An easy way to do this is to look at the first 4 positions in the betting forecast, or any horse forecast at 8/1 or less. Around 65% of all of the winners in handicap races come from this group. To shape the race award 3 points to the first 4 in the betting forecast and 1 point to all of the other horses.

Convert all of these points into percentages by adding the total number of points together for all of the horses and then dividing each individual horses score by the total number of points.

For example a horse with 3 points, in a race with a total score of 19 would have 3 / 19 = 0.157 and a horse with 1 point in the same race would have a score of 1 / 19 = 0.056. I leave this bit and do step two next.

"I have used the Clive
Holt Fineform ratings numbers for form, course and distance points because
they are probably as good as anyone else's"

Step Two

Now you want to add some form figures to the horses. I have used the Clive Holt Fineform ratings numbers for form, course and distance points because they are probably as good as anyone else's.

Points are awarded as listed below for each of the runners' previous two outings in the current season.

1st 5 points
2nd 3 points
3rd 2 points
4th 1 point

Course & Distance (C&D)
C&D 3 points
C.D 3 points
D 2 points
C 1 point

Convert all of these points into percentages by adding the total number of points together for all of the horses and then dividing each individual horses score by the total number of points, the same as in step one.

Step Three
You should now have two columns of figures, one for the shape of the race the other for your form rating. Add these two columns together and convert them into percentages as above.

Note:
To convert percentage to prices, Decimal Odds - Exchange prices, divide 1 by the percentage. Fractional Odds - Bookies prices to one, divide 1 by the percentage and
subtract one.

That is basically how I make a book. You could simply back the horse with the shortest odds on your book or wait for one of your outsiders to come along at the right price