A Horse to Follow – Strangely Brown

Strangely Brown (4-Y-O) – is without a doubt one of the stars of the future and this is why I think so.

We have to look at his story so far and make an assessment of the best conditions that suit the horse and when he is most likely to reproduce his best form or improve.

Date	Course	Distance	Going	Class	Race Type	Value	Weight	Finish posn.
18-Jun-05	Aut	20	VSft		4yG1H	73K	10-6	1/11
28-Apr-05	Pun	16	Sft		4yG1H	48K	11-0	2/7
07-Apr-05	Ain	17	GS	A	4yG1NvH	69K	11-0	3/12
18-Mar-05	Chl	17	Gd	A	4yG1H	58K	11-0	6/23
06-Feb-05	Leo	16	Sft		4yG2H	25K	11-3	1/6
15-Jan-05	Pun	16	Hy		4yG3H	15K	10-7	1/9
28-Dec-04	Lim	16	Hy		3yMdH	6K	10-7	1/14
19-Oct-04	Bat	17	Sft	cl5	3yHc	3K	9-12	4/8
26-Sep-04	Mus	16	GF	cl4	Hc	6K	8-13	3/6
17-Sep-04	Ayr	17	Sft	cl4	Hc	6K	8-5	1/8
11-Aug-04	San	16	GF	cl4	Hc	5K	8-0	1/12
30-Jul-04	Not	16	GF	cl6	3yHc	3K	9-4	1/14
19-Jul-04	Bev	16	GS	cl6	3yMdHc	3K	9-1	2/20
17-Jun-04	Sth	12	St	cl6	3yHc	3K	9-10	14/20
25-May-04	Rip	10	GF	cl5	3yHc	4K	8-3	9/15
07-May-04	Not	10	Sft	cl6	3yHc	3K	9-0	3/16
01-Mar-04	Cat	6	Gd	cl4	Md	3K	8-11	8/11
Feb-04	Wol	9	Sl	cl4	3yMd	3K	9-0	7/12
28-Oct-03	Not	5	GF	cl4	2yMd	3K	8-9	10/14
06-Oct-03	Wdr	6	GF	cl4	2yMd	3K	8-9	13/16

He has had twenty starts so far and finished in the frame in eleven of those and won seven.

Win strike rate	His good runs (incl wins) / total runs strike rate
7 / 20 = 35%	11 / 20 = 55%

Looking at the main form table above, it is obvious that this horse is progressing so a meaningful class figure cannot be established. We’re not going to see him sprinting again, he’s not run over less than 16F for more than a year. So we need to look to the going for our best guide to form, for this very consistent performer.

"we need to look to the going for our best guide to form, for this very consistent performer."

He has had ten starts on days when the going has been Good to Soft or Softer and ten starts where the going has been firmer than Good to Soft.

Good run to GS strike rate	Good run to firmer than GS strike rate
8 / 10 = 80%	2 / 10 = 20%

Out of his last ten runs, eight have been on days where the going is GS or Softer and five of these have been wins. On his only two starts on Gd / GF he has failed to make the frame.

In summary, I reckon that under the right conditions that this horse could go all the way to the top. He needs his favourite testing ground and a distance where his endless stamina can be brought to bear on his opponents. You could do a lot worse than adding this to your horses to follow list, for both Flat and National Hunt racing.